WSJ reports pros are shorting rare Earth (REEs) stocks

By BRENDAN CONWAY And TATYANA SHUMSKY, Wall Street Journal (27jun11)

The rare-earth minerals sector is drawing near-record short interest as bearish investors bet against its previously highflying stocks.

The industry, whose minerals are used to help power items as varied as vacuum cleaners and smartphones, had been a darling of the stock market over the past year. Investors snapped up shares of the North American trio of Molycorp Inc., Avalon Rare Metals Inc., and Rare Element Resources Ltd. as rare-earth minerals were viewed as short in supply, likely to be hit by Chinese export curbs and all but certain to enjoy steady future demand by a broad range of tech customers.

That all came to an end in recent months after a confluence of events sideswiped the industry, causing short sellers to swell. Investors who want to short shares borrow the stock and then sell it, betting that the price of the shares will fall and that they can buy them back at a lower price, for return to the lender.

Shares of rare-earth mineral companies have been punished amid doubts that the Chinese supply crunch—the country now accounts for 95% of world output—is as bad as surging prices imply. Last week's share sales by executives at North American industry leader Molycorp may also be weighing on sentiment.

"Short interest in the three quoted rare-earth miners outside of China has continued to build since April and stands just off record highs," said Will Duff Gordon, research director for Data Explorers. Despite a recent share-price correction in the three stocks, "it seems that short sellers still believe them to be overvalued."


Molycorp, Avalon and Rare Element Resources all targeted

These non-Chinese rare-mineral stocks have seen share prices fall between 33% and 42% from their highs in the early part of this year. The proportion of Molycorp shares on loan, a proxy for bearish short interest, hit a high of 11.5% on June 15 and has since hovered slightly below that mark, according to Data Explorers. Avalon and Rare Element have also seen more bearish-looking short activity in recent months.

"The peaks of all three of these stocks were a good 40% above where they are now, so some froth has been blown off the beer," said Christopher Ecclestone, mining strategist at Hallgarten & Co.

The "rare earth" name is something of a misnomer. The 17 metals are found in deposits all around the globe and aren't limited to China.

The range of uses is wide. Certain rare-earth elements, like yttrium, have been used to make specialty steel stronger and more durable over the years, but the industry blossomed with the rise of certain high-tech products over the past decade.

Companies like Dyson Appliances Ltd. rely on neodymium magnets to create the powerful suction vortex in their vacuum cleaners. Apple Inc. and Blackberry maker Research In Motion Ltd. use terbium to make their phones smaller, lighter and faster.

Other countries largely dismantled their mining operations as China undercut competitors and came to dominate processing over the years, according to market participants. The country is in the position of restricting supply to some degree, but recent price gains mean that extracting the metals elsewhere is once again profitable.

Outsiders are only now beginning to rebuild that capability. Mr. Ecclestone said the two companies besides Molycorp "don't have a ghost's chance of production in the next two years, maybe more."


Insider Sales also affecting downward pressure

Some of Molycorp's recent declines may be linked to large insider share sales conducted over the past month. Chief Executive Mark Smith reported a sale of nearly 175,000 shares last week, or about 16% of the executive's holdings as of May.

A Molycorp spokesman said that the short interest may not be driven by sentiment, and may instead be the result of complex arbitrage trades. He added that Mr. Smith's sales were "prudent personal financial planning" and said the "vast, vast majority of [Mr. Smith's] personal net worth is tied up in the single stock."

He added that the executive's interests "remain completely aligned with shareholders" and his financial success "still depends almost completely on the success of the company."

The bearish action comes as some Wall Street analysts have grown more positive on the stocks, largely to reflect the jump in prices. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. stock analysts led by Michael F. Gambardella raised their Molycorp target price recently to $105 from $87, in part "to reflect the continued rise in rare-earth prices."

But even some bullish analysts are voicing doubts that the surge in prices will last. Dahlman Rose & Co. analysts Anthony Young and Anthony Rizzuto said this week that the underlying metals have already priced in tighter Chinese quotas, adding that they are "uncertain current levels are sustainable."

The analysts have a "buy" rating on the stock, though they reduced their price target, to $120 from $125.

— Chuin-Wei Yap also contributed to this article.